A crochet pattern for a creative witch hat is a fun and stylish project to tackle. This pattern allows you to unleash your creativity and add your own personal touch to the traditional witch hat design. To begin, gather all the necessary materials for the project. You will need a crochet hook, a yarn of your choice, and any additional embellishments or decorations you desire. The type and weight of yarn is up to you, as it will affect the overall size and look of the hat. Start by making a magic adjustable ring to create the foundation of the hat.
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Each of our five model portfolios comes with thoroughly vetted investment ideas, embedded risk management, and specialized financial engineering for alpha generation. However, investors may need to wait patiently for the credit markets to unfreeze, which may not happen until the Fed pivots slows or reverses its quantitative tightening program.
Start by making a magic adjustable ring to create the foundation of the hat. Insert the crochet hook into the ring and chain a certain number of stitches, depending on the desired size. This initial chain will determine the circumference of the hat.
Upstart: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
As an Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) investor, I'm rooting for the good, preparing for the bad, and positioning for the ugly.
The Good: Upstart is suffering a violent contraction in lending volumes due to a rapidly deteriorating credit market. However, when we look under the hood, the company is still adding new partners to its AI-powered lending marketplace and expanding its presence among auto dealerships.
Upstart Q2 Earnings Presentation
Recently announced lending partnerships:
- Vantage West Credit Union Partners with Upstart to Offer a More Streamlined, Digital-first Borrowing Experience [8th September 2022]
- Alliant Credit Union Selects Upstart for a Personal Lending Fintech Partnership [17th August 2022]
Even during this uncertain macroeconomic environment, Upstart adding more partners to its marketplace is setting up the company for a brighter future. When the credit cycle turns (and it will turn at some point [hopefully, in 2023]), Upstart's business is likely to come back stronger than ever (if its credit performance holds up well).
In the meantime, Upstart's robust unit economics and low fixed cost structures are set to enable the business to remain free cash flow positive during this down cycle. With $800M of cash on its balance sheet, Upstart has enough firepower to survive through these tumultuous macroeconomic conditions.
The Bad: Upstart's lending marketplace is funding constrained, and according to recent commentary from the company's C-suite, Upstart's funding partners are still being risk averse (homogeneously), and no progress has been made on securing committed funding for their marketplace (plans announced in Q2 earnings call). In fact, the management admitted during recent conferences that the committed funding plan is something for the next downturn in debt markets.
Links to recent conferences held in mid-September:
- Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference: Fireside Chat with Dave Girouard
- Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference, Fireside Chat with Sanjay Datta
With funding partners and institutional investors bailing on Upstart, its volumes could remain in free fall until the credit cycle turns (and that's likely not happening until the Fed pivots).
The Ugly: In my analysis of Upstart's Q2 results, I highlighted the fact that its credit performance data for 2021 cohorts was unimpressive. And recent data from KBRA shows that many of Upstart's ABS securitization trusts have recently suffered (or are set to suffer) trigger breaches [Current Cumulative Net Defaults [CND] > Expected CND].
KBRA news release
Upstart's AI has never been tested in a recessionary environment, and if its credit performance fails to match or outperform FICO-based loans, institutional investors and funding partners may pull back permanently from Upstart's marketplace. In such a scenario, Upstart will not be able to scale due to the limitations of its balance sheet. The company's long-term future will then be as a financial lending institution, similar to LendingClub (LC) or SoFi (SOFI). Again, this doesn't mean Upstart would be a bad business; it would just be a very different business than what Upstart's management has set out to build. The valuation would look a lot different too, but more on that later.
In the first half of Q3, Upstart's business would have gotten some relief as interest moderated somewhat; however, the second half of Q3 saw surging interest rates, as shown in the chart below. As of writing, the 2-yr treasury yield is inching towards 4%, and the 10-yr treasury yield is ~3.6%.
US Treasury Yields (YCharts)
Inflation readings are coming in hot despite consumer sentiment being down in the dumps, and the yield curve inversion is pointing towards a potential recession. Honestly, I think that Upstart's credit performance data is set to get worse over coming quarters as it would for almost all lending institutions amid an unprecedented quantitative tightening from central banks across the globe.
If Upstart's credit performance is better than peers during the next few quarters, we will see a sharp recovery in its marketplace lending volumes once the credit cycle turns. However, if Upstart's relative performance is not better than peers, we may be left with a slow to no growth, digital-lending fintech business (with no bank charter [i.e., high-cost structure]). Upstart's management has presented data that shows its AI's superior risk separation capabilities, and the next few quarters will determine if this data is reliable.
Another concerning data point I have come across is Upstart's website traffic. While total traffic grew by 12% y/y in August, Desktop views tanked by ~35%. Rising interest rates are set to lower the demand for loans and impact Upstart's conversion rates (as seen in Q2). As a result, Upstart's lending activity may continue to contract for the foreseeable future.
With all of this information in mind, let's re-evaluate Upstart's intrinsic value and expected returns.
Next, work in rounds to create the body of the hat. Use single crochet stitches to gradually increase the diameter and height of the hat. For added flair, you can incorporate different stitch patterns or color changes. Experiment with different textures and designs to make your witch hat truly unique. Once you have reached the desired height of the hat, it is time to shape the brim. Depending on your preferred style, you can make the brim wide and floppy or narrow and pointed. Work rows of single or double crochet stitches to achieve the desired brim shape. To finish off your witch hat, add any embellishments or decorations you desire. This could include ribbons, flowers, buttons, or even a miniature broomstick. Get creative and make the hat your own! Finally, try on the hat and make any necessary adjustments to ensure a perfect fit. You can also block the hat to help it retain its shape. In conclusion, a crochet pattern for a creative witch hat is a fun and customizable project that allows you to showcase your crochet skills and express your personal style. Get creative with stitch patterns, colors, and decorations to make a hat that is truly one-of-a-kind. So grab your crochet hook and yarn and start stitching your way to a magical and fashionable witch hat!.
Reviews for "Create a Spooktacular Witch Hat with this Crochet Pattern"
1. Emily - 2 stars
I was really excited to try this crochet pattern for a creative witch hat, but I was disappointed with the final product. The pattern was confusing and not well-explained, making it difficult to follow along. Additionally, the finished hat didn't turn out as expected. The size was off and it didn't look as stylish and elegant as it did in the picture. Overall, I was let down by this pattern and would not recommend it to others.
2. Jennifer - 1 star
I found this crochet pattern for a creative witch hat to be extremely frustrating and complicated. The instructions were convoluted and the diagrams provided did not match up with the written directions. I tried multiple times to make the hat but every time it turned out misshapen and awkward-looking. It was a waste of time and money, and I would not recommend this pattern to anyone, especially beginners.
3. Sarah - 2 stars
I was really looking forward to making a creative witch hat using this crochet pattern, but unfortunately, it fell short of my expectations. The instructions were not very clear and seemed to assume prior knowledge of certain techniques. As a beginner, I struggled to understand and follow the pattern. Additionally, the finished hat didn't have the whimsical look I was hoping for. I was disappointed with the overall outcome and would not recommend this pattern to others who are new to crochet.
4. Jessica - 3 stars
While I didn't hate this crochet pattern for a creative witch hat, I wasn't particularly impressed either. The instructions were okay, but there were some steps that were missing or not explained well. This made the project more difficult than it needed to be. The end result was decent, but I've seen better patterns for witch hats out there. Overall, it's an average pattern that could use some improvements.