Kiittycorns and Sirprises: A Match Made in Magix

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That method, NHL Equivalencies NHLe , which I describe in detail in a postscript, predicts Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will score 38 points if he s a full-time Oiler this year. Answer The speaker experienced a significant change in energy levels, ability to complete tasks, gained more confidence, and was able to hyper-focus more effectively after receiving a diagnosis of ADD.

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It is a curse on Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to compare him to Gretzky

A few years back, hockey stats whiz Gabe Desjardins came up with an innovative way to predict how a new player entering the NHL might perform. That method, NHL Equivalencies (NHLe), which I describe in detail in a postscript, predicts Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will score 38 points if he’s a full-time Oiler this year.

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Others see better things for Nugent-Hopkins. He has constantly drawn comparisons to Wayne Gretzky (here and here), another skinny centre with great on-ice vision, superlative passing skills, another humble team player who also happened to have astonishing skill.

But it’s crucial to note that based on his World Hockey Association production, Gretzky’s NHLe for his first NHL season was 100 points, not 38 points.

It’s tougher to put up points now than it was in the early 1980s, but for RNH to have a Gretzky-like season, that would mean putting up 80-plus points.

And that’s not going to happen, even as expectations in Edmonton are now shooting through the roof after a strong pre-season performances by Nugent-Hipkins.

The Gretzky comparison keeps popping up, most recently on Oilers Now on Wednesday, when host Bob Stauffer brought up the “G” word in relation to Nugent-Hopkins. Here’s an abridged transcript of the brief on-air talk I had with Stauffer about RNH, who predicted the kid will be an “impact” player this year.

Stauffer: “It is remarkable in terms of the vision, how (RNH) handles himself, how he skates on the ice, the deceptiveness in which he plays with, and then the demeanour off the ice. You hear some people use the Gretzky — and it’s unfair to compare any kid to Gretzky — but there are some similarities in terms of where this kid is from and where Gretzky is from in terms of what he’s about.”

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Staples: “But in terms of production, they are nowhere close, and my only concern with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is he translates right now into a 40 point player, 35-40 point player in the NHL this year.”

Stauffer: “How so? Just because Desjardins says so?”

Staples: “Not because Desjardins says so. Because he has a system that says so that makes sense and often works. I love this guy’s skill, Bob. I love his skill. He’s a great player, but I’m not going there with the Gretzky comparison.”

Stauffer: “I’m just saying there are some similarities, right? And, remember it’s a far lower scoring time now, defencemen can actually turn to both sides.”

Staples: “Yeah, yeah. You’re right. And when you meet the kid … I know the Gretzky stuff. I’m just trying to contain myself, because I think that’s in order.”

Stauffer: “Fair comment. I’ll say this. If he’s here and he’s given ample opportunity to play on the Oilers’ first unit power play, he will get 55 points. He won’t get 40. I don’t care what Desjardins says. He’ll exceed it.”

Staples: “But where does Gagner get his ice time then? We want to see a full-year out of that kid and see if he’s finally got it. To me, we’ve got to weigh these things.”

A few things . . . I certainly understand how the Gretzky comparison comes about, as it has hit me over the head a few times as well in terms of the style of play, build and character of the two players, and I think that’s what Stauffer was mostly referring to.

Certainly 55 points isn’t a Gretzky-like number. It’s a lot closer to what RNH’s NHLe suggests he will do than any kind of Gretzky-like production.

My beef is that when fans and commentators start suggesting this kid is a sure thing to start putting up major points this year and that he reminds them of Gretzky, well, it’s hard to imagine they could think up a bigger curse for RNH.

When you bring up the name Wayne Gretzky, all kinds of things necessarily go with that, including 200-point seasons, goal-a-game seasons, Stanley Cups, Canada Cups, MVP trophies. That extraordinary success was the essence of Gretzky, and it flows out of any mention of his name in relation to another player. It’s far too much baggage for any young man to have on his back as he’s trying to establish himself in the NHL.

RNH seems to be a solid enough kid, so we don’t have to worry the comparison will go to his head. Yet even a solid kid can get down when he hears boos and catcalls from fans when their unreasonable expectations aren’t met.

So how about we all take a deep breath, yet again, and quietly vow to resist the urge.

RNH is not Wayne Gretzky. He will never be Wane Gretzky.

Instead, he’s a smart, skilled player, maybe a great one. But Sam Gagner was a good, skilled player, too, and it has taken him some time to develop. It’s odd that now that Gagner is 22, and he’s finally, maybe, possibly ready to play in the NHL with the necessary grit and skill at both ends of the ice, that he’s falling off the radar of many fans.

My suggestion? Let’s be patient with both players and accept that Gagner needs more time to if he’s going to produce. Let’s see if Gagner is ready to finally step up this year and produce, while accepting that RNH also needs time to become the player he can be, rather than an impact player as a rookie or the new Wayne Gretzky, which nobody is ever going to ever be again.

P.S. (Reprinted from previous post) So how do Desjardins’ NHL Equivalencies work?

Essentially, the model looks at how all players who have made the jump to the NHL from various lesser leagues have generally done in their rookie NHL season, using that as a basis to predict how a particular player from a particular league will do as he attempts to make that same jump to the NHL.
To come up with his numbers, Desjardins looked only at players born after 1948, who were good enough to make the jump to the NHL and had played 40 or more games in a developmental league, then 40 or more games the following year in the NHL.
He focused on how many points per game a player scored in the developmental league, such as the American Hockey League, then compared that to how many he scored in his first NHL season, which is almost always a smaller number.
By working out how hundreds of players did making this jump from a particular league, Desjardins can ascertain an average percentage ratio of just how much a player’s scoring total will drop when they make their move from that particular league to the NHL.
He has found players do better on average coming from some leagues, such as the Swedish and Russian elite leagues, than they do coming from major junior hockey.
“To determine the quality of the AHL (or any other league), we can simply look at every player who spent year one in a minor league and year two in the NHL and compare their point-per-game averages,” he has written. “As long as a player’s skill level is approximately constant over this two year period, the ratio of his performance in each league can be used to estimate the relative difficulty of the two leagues.
“What we are most interested in is what one point in a given league is equivalent to in the NHL – in other words, the league equivalency. There is enough data to use the above method to estimate the league equivalence for the best minor leagues (AHL/IHL), most major professional leagues (European Elite Leagues) and the WHA.”
For the AHL, Desjardins found that the approximate quality compared to the NHL was 0.45. That means if a player put up one point-per-game in the AHL in a season, he could reasonably be expected to put up about 0.45 points per game in the NHL.
By comparison, the World Hockey Association in its last season, 1978-79, when rookie Wayne Gretzky was lighting it up for the Oilers, had an NHL equivalency of 0.89.
That season, Gretzky scored 46 goals and 64 assists in 80 games. If Gretzky had been in the NHL that year and played 82 games (all NHLe are based on 82 games) the prediction is he would have had 42 goals and 58 assists for 100 points.
Desjardins has worked out equivalent-to-NHL ratios for most feeder leagues: Russian Elite League 0.83; Czech Republic League 0.74; Swedish Elite League 0.78; Finland SM-Liiga 0.54; Switzerland National League 0.43; Deutsche Eishockey League 0.52; AHL/IHL 0.45; NCAA 0.41; Western Hockey League, 0.30; Quebec Major Junior Hockey League, 0.28; Ontario Hockey League, 0.30.
In recent years, Oilers blogger Allan Mitchell of Lowetide and Oilers Nation has worked out NHLe for hundreds of players who made the junior-to-NHL jump, comparing their NHLe to their actual NHL production. Here are a handful of Mitchell’s findings:
* Patrick Kane: 26-36-62 (Actual: 82gp, 21-51-72)
* Sam Gagner: 16-39-55 (Actual: 79gp, 13-36-49)
* Steven Stamkos 23-19-42 (Actual: 79gp, 23-23-46)
* Drew Doughty 6-23-29 (Actual: 81gp, 6-21-27)
* Matt Duchene 13-21-34 (Actual: 81gp, 24-31-55)
* Ryan O’Reilly 6-18-24 (Actual: 81gp, 8-18-26)
If the proof is in the pudding, NHLe are worth serving up. It’s not an exact science — partly because most NHLe are based on games played, not on time-on-ice (data which is generally unavailable) — but it’s a predictive guideline that often comes close to the mark. I must admit, I’ve been slow to come around to these numbers and this model of predicting what a player might do, but I’m sold on them now. Of course, any player can defy his NHLe, just look at Matt Duchene here, but they’re pretty much bang on, more often than not. The best predictor of the future is the past, and the mighty weight of the past is the bedrock of the NHLe method.
Nugent-Hopkin’s NHLe tells a sober story, pushing us to have modest expectations this season. Based on Nugent-Hopkins’ 31 goals and 75 assists in Red Deer as a 17-year-old, his NHLe is 11 goals and 27 assists in 82 games. That’s not bad for an 18-year-old kid in the NHL, and you can expect a player who scored so much as a 17-year-old in major junior to at least double his rookie scoring numbers as he moves into his peak scoring years, 22-to-26.

13:46 – How do our New Summer-shiney subscribers find out more about you?

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Reviews for "The Kiittycorn Chronicles: A Tale of Sirprise and Magix"

1. Samantha - 2/5 - I was really disappointed with the "Kiittycorn Sirprise Magix Kotty Littet" toy. The packaging made it look so cute and magical, but the actual product was cheaply made. The kitty's fur was poorly stitched together, and it started shedding after just a few minutes of play. The "magical" surprises inside were just plain stickers and tiny plastic jewels. Overall, I felt like I wasted my money on this toy.

2. Michael - 1/5 - This toy was a total letdown. The name promised so much fun and excitement, but it was anything but that. The kitty itself was not well-designed, with uneven eyes and a lopsided tail. The so-called "surprises" were just cheap trinkets that had no real value or playability. After just one play session, the toy fell apart, and my child was left crying. I would not recommend this toy to anyone.

3. Emily - 2/5 - I bought the "Kiittycorn Sirprise Magix Kotty Littet" for my daughter, but she was quickly disappointed. The toy smelled like strong chemicals, which was a huge concern for me as a parent. Additionally, the toy's voice feature did not work properly, as it would randomly say phrases even when it wasn't being played with. The whole experience was frustrating and not worth the money.

The Kiittycorn Phenomenon: Exploring the Sirprising Magix Behind it