bernadette cavendish

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What is surprising is the rise in small business optimism with 33 of the small business owners reported having job openings they have yet to fill with many expecting to add to the number of new hires needed in the next three months. From finding an agent to closing and beyond, our goal is to help you feel confident that you re making the best, and smartest, real estate deal possible.

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Commercial Real Estate Appraisal: Voodoo & Witchcraft or Art & Science?

What is the voodoo that you do? What’s so complicated about establishing a value? It’s simple. It’s not rocket science. After all, it’s just an opinion, right?

Right! But it’s more than that. Hold on. Let me get my mojo working and consult my crystal ball…

When I first began my career as a commercial appraiser over 20 years ago, I was mystified. Coming up with a value seemed magical to me. This was similar to the confusion many of my beginning students in my appraisal classes expressed. Smoke and mirrors MUST have been employed. And what about that crystal ball?

Let me tell you. It turns out the good juju lies in the data. It IS more than just an opinion! It’s a supportable opinion.

But with technology and information at our fingertips, who needs an appraiser? Just give me that mystical data and I will give you a value. Easy-Peasy! It’s like throwing a dart at a dart board. Bulls Eye every time! Data science is, after all, where the mystical data comes from. Algorithms have their place. But is it all that is needed in the field of valuation?

Nope. There’s more. A crucial ingredient is the ability to analyze that data in a relevant and meaningful manner with a focused attention to detail. However, if you wait a minute or two, things will change. Right? Good or bad, they always change. This is an intrinsic truth. Not only is it true of values and real estate but of everything around us. Climate change or pandemic, newly elected leaders or the overthrow of a government, drought and famine or a surplus of goods, change is a constant. Not only do these things affect our daily lives, they impact the value of real estate. But how? And to what extent? Those are the very heart of the problem.

I am curious by nature. I like to know what is going on around me. Even more, I like to know how it impacts the future. But I am no fortune teller. I am an observer. I am an interviewer. I am a detailed analyst. I am a story teller. I like to gather up facts, put them into the “cauldron”, add a cup of verification and see what results. All I needed was that data, someone who could confirm the accuracy of the data I found and Voila! This is both the art and the science of an appraiser’s job, albeit unequal parts.

But that’s not all of it. It takes a particular talent when presented with data that seems conflicting or only has parts of the puzzle along with a “hunch” that something is not quite right to discover “what lies beneath”. That talent is part judgment, part experience and part instinct combined with tenacity. There is more art involved in this "ingredient". I can remember numerous times when viewing the raw data that something appeared to be out of kilter. I wasn’t sure why but when I dug a little deeper, there were many times my “hunch” paid off.

Then 2020 happened! We seemed to be on track for another good year in commercial real estate at the end of 2019. That’s when the demon COVID-19 reared its ugly head. The number of transactions screeched to a virtual stop. Or at the very least, like a runaway train, ran off the tracks of what we called “normal”.

In an article published April 1, 2020 written by Floyd Merritt, Vice President at KeyBank, the pulse of CRE (commercial real estate) participants was taken and presented. In his “letter” the following was discussed:

· Uncertainty and fear were high but expectations were this would only be “temporary distress”;

· While distressed CRE deals shrunk dramatically over the past 10 years, the expectation is a significant but uneven rise in special assets;

· And the “Fed’s monetary policies are propping everything up in the short run”. (read his article for more)

That was then. Has the trajectory changed or remained the same? Let’s see. Peering into that crystal ball again. This is where the science takes center stage. Let’s see if we can gather some juju here. Fair warning: it may not all be good juju.

As of the end of the second quarter of 2020, the charge-offs and delinquency rates on loans and leases with commercial banks for commercial real estate loans increased by nearly 11% compared to 1Q2020 according to the Federal Reserve’s data. Brian Bailey, Senior Financial Policy Analyst with the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta was recently interviewed by Michael Bull on his podcast show “America’s Commercial Real Estate Show”. (Please note the views and opinions are those of the interviewee, not necessarily those of the FRB or the Board of Governors of the FRS) Brian noted several predictions made in March and April came to fruition. But there were a few that were not as bad as first anticipated:

· Sale and Lease volume has declined (declines were anticipated) and is currently at 20% to 30% of the Pre-COVID levels;

· Acceleration of consumer spending (currently up by 20%+) in the e-commerce sector (anticipated-perhaps not to this level);

· Rent collections were much stronger than anticipated: 95%+ for industrial, office and multi-family and 80% successful rent collections for retail; (better than expected)

· Consumer savings are up dramatically, four to six times the highest rate of savings compared to the saving rates over the last 60 years; (surprising)

· Lenders are better equipped and banks are better capitalized than in 2007.

Brian also reported a few statistics in a recently held virtual conference where he spoke. The estimate for economic growth for 3Q2020 by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta was recently projected at +35.2% as of October 15, 2020. In comparison, back in August the GDP growth for 3Q2020 was projected at +25.6%. However, as of October 28th the projected growth is at 37%, “definitely on the high end compared to some of the forecasts”. While this is heartening, it is important to be aware this is not an official forecast and it “does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact of GDP source data…(or)…anticipate their impact of forthcoming economic reports…”.

The NY Times published an article this morning (October 29th) stating the GDP growth for 3Q2020 grew by 7.4%, indicating a 33.1% annual growth which is the "biggest gain ever. But G.D.P. still lags pre-pandemic levels." While growth is good news, it is also noted progress is slowing.

Additionally, the SVN Commercial Advisory Group’s Economic Update Mid-October indicated, as expected by most, CMBS distressed debt has risen rapidly but unevenly by industry sector. While the report does not give a percentage of the total CMBS debt, it does list the “volume of distressed CMBS debt in the second quarter totaled just below $40 billion, rising above GFC records…”.

· Hotels: 50% (not surprising)

· Retail: 42% (also not surprising)

· Remaining industries account for the final 8% collectively.

What is surprising is the rise in small business optimism with 33% of the small business owners reported having job openings they have yet to fill with many expecting to add to the number of new hires needed in the next three months. However, while unemployment continues to drop, falling for five consecutive months, the rate of new job creation is slowing.

With sales volume down nearly 62% comparing year-over-year (per RCA’s September edition of the U.S. Capital Trends), the “pickin’s are slim” and getting slimmer by the minute. Data is dwindling. So what’s an appraiser to do? Get your mojo workin’!

With less and less to compare to, an essential ingredient to add is the art of communication. It is all “mumbo-jumbo” without effective, clear and concise communication in a language that is easily understood. This is more of the true art involved in appraisal. Every profession has its own unique terminology. Appraisal is no different. Not everyone understands so it has to be broken down, in ways the “everyman” can understand. As I mentioned earlier, some of the art also involves following that “hunch”. Good communication also involves getting people to talk, making them feel comfortable enough to tell a complete stranger details of a sensitive nature.

Nailing a value is a complex process. While developing an algorithm to sift through data is no easy task, an appraisal requires more. An algorithm does not have access to sound judgment, an experienced appraiser does. An algorithm only assesses the data that is input into the system with no ability to “suss out” the possible inconsistencies. Appraisal is both an art and a science and the pieces that make up the whole pie are rarely the same. As we can see in the current situation, a lot of the data in terms of comparisons is, at the very least, stalled.

Then we dig deeper. In addition to looking at current events and future predictions, we look backwards. It becomes a more fluid process that relies on our ability to sift through it all. This takes experience and sound judgment. This takes talent and tenacity. This takes honesty and credibility. Data must be analyzed based on everything going on around us. It is absolutely necessary to make certain what we believe to be true is accurate and complete. Finally, the results must be communicated it in a way anyone can easily understand.

Some of the data, actually much of it, is still Pre-COVID data. It is important for those who rely upon appraisals to proceed with caution. The inherent risks are higher than normal with many businesses shutting their doors and/or not paying their rent or mortgages. How to address those issues are as varied as the valuation problems and subject properties themselves. Appraisers, investors and lenders need to keep their fingers on the pulse, now more than ever. In a time of social distancing, reaching out and networking is key. Confidentiality is of primary concern. There is a reason there is an entire section in the Ethics Rule of USPAP regarding confidentiality. In my opinion, transparency and information sharing within those guidelines is going to carry us through.

Appraisal is not rocket science for certain. But it is also not simple. There is no witchcraft involved, no voodoo. It relies on investigation, integrity, independence and impartiality. It is the science of research and data analysis combined with the art of effective communication.

· And the “Fed’s monetary policies are propping everything up in the short run”. (read his article for more)

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